Market Analysis

Forex Analysis

Understanding Pivot Points

Pivot points are used by traders as a predictive indicator and denote levels of technical significance. When used in conjunction with other technical indicators such as support and resistance or Fibonacci, pivot points can be an effective trading tool.

Pivot points are calculated using the high, low and close prices of a previous day, week or month. Three different levels of support and resistance are calculated above and below the pivot point. The three levels of resistance are referred to as R1, R2, and R3 while the three levels of support are referred to as S1, S2, and S3. When the current price is trading above the daily pivot point, this serves as an indication to initiate long positions. Conversely, when the current price is trading below the daily pivot point, this serves as an indication to initiate short positions. The support and resistance levels are used primarily as trade exits. For example, if the market price breaks above the pivot point, R1 and R2 may be used as trade targets. Should the market move to R3, traders may consider exiting the long position and even reversing the position if other technical indicators show a strong reversal trend.

Understanding Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of historical price action in order to identify patterns and determine probabilities of future movements in the market through the use of technical studies, indicators, and other analysis tools.
Technical analysis boils down to two things:

Identifying trend
Identifying support/resistance through the use of price charts and/or timeframes.

Markets can only do three things: move up, down, or sideways.

Prices typically move in a zigzag fashion, and as a result, price action has only two states:

Range – when prices zigzag sideways
Trend – prices either zigzag higher (up trend, or bull trend), or prices zigzag lower (down trend, or bear trend

How Forex Differs from Other Markets

There are some major differences between the way the forex operates and other markets such as the U.S. stock market operate.

Fewer Rules

This means investors aren't held to as strict standards or regulations as those in the stock, futures or options markets. There are no clearinghouses and no central bodies that oversee the entire forex market. You can short-sell at any time because in forex you aren't ever actually shorting; if you sell one currency you are buying another.

Fees and Commissions

Since the market is unregulated, fees and commissions vary widely among brokers. Most forex brokers make money by marking up the spread on currency pairs. Others make money by charging a commission, which fluctuates based on the amount of currency traded. Some brokers use both.

Full Access

There's no cut-off as to when you can and cannot trade. Because the market is open 24 hours a day, you can trade at any time of day. The exception is weekends, or when no global financial center is open due to a holiday.

Leverage

The forex market allows for leverage up to 50:1 in the U.S. and even higher in some parts of the world. That means a trader can open an account for $1,000 and buy or sell as much as $50,000 in currency. Leverage is a double-edged sword; it magnifies both profits and losses.

Example of Forex Transactions

Assume a trader believes that the EUR will appreciate against the USD. Another way of thinking of it is that the USD will fall relative to the EUR.
The trader buys the EUR/USD at 1.2500 and purchases $5,000 worth of currency. Later that day the price has increased to 1.2550. The trader is up $25 (5000 * 0.0050). If the price dropp ed to 1.2430, the trader would be losing $35 (5000 * 0.0070).